When agencies make big mistakes they get neat up in the media. But when they are correct we probably never hear in the media. Insights here on characteristics of superforecasting
Superforecasting does require minimum levels of intelligence, numeracy, and knowledge of the world, but anyone who reads serious books about psychological research [such as Tetlock’s] probably has those prerequisites. So what is it that elevates forecasting to superforecasting? …What matters most is how the forecaster thinks… Broadly speaking, superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance. (p. 20)
